Each year, 400 to 450 aircraft are scrapped and disassembled globally, for a $2 billion market for aircraft parts, and 12,500 aircraft will reach their end-of-life in the 20 years after 2009.[1] Of those, around one third are parted out and disassembled by members of the AFRA.[1] The AFRA is an international non-profit association aiming to promote environmental best practices, regulatory excellence and sustainable developments in the fields of aircraft disassembly, as well as the salvaging and recycling aircraft parts and materials.
Retirements peaked at more than 700 in 2013 and declined to about 500 in 2016 while strong demand and relatively low fuel prices keep older airliners flying, the in-service aircraft older than 15 years grew by more than 1,600 between 2013 and 2017. As part prices were high in early 2018, some young, 15–20 years old A319 and A320s are being parted out. Decommissions should rise to 750 annually, 3,900 from 2018 through 2022, while manufacturers plan to ramp up deliveries to 2,200 aircraft in 2020.[2]
In 2018, airliner retirement slowed to 1.75% of the fleet in 2018, down from 2.5% in 2017 and a 3.5% peak in 2013 according to Morgan Stanley in February 2019. At the time, Jefferies forecast a 2.3% average retirement over the next five years and reported 505 retirements in 2018. At the end of January 2019, there were 1,186 parked aircraft, 5.5% of the fleet down from 6.7% a year before and well below the past 20 years average. Aircraft lessors own 16% of the parked fleet, up from 9% a decade before. Most of the parked fleet is unlikely to fly again.[